I found this link when researching another blog post, and I feel that it needs it’s own blog post. Every bull market has ended in a recession. While the overall trend in the market is up, the fact is that it will end. The only question is when, and of course it follows is figuring out what to do when it does. I am not a prognosticator, and I have not guessed correctly the end of the last two. Nor do I know of anyone who has credibly guessed both of the last ones either. Warren Buffet doesn’t either, and I take his advice on this subject as gospel. The guy reminds me of many of the pithy sayings from Benjamin Franklin, but I digress.
The article is from June 2018, and as I post this blog, we are in August. That extra 2 months makes this bull run tied for the longest since WW2, and it seems unlikely to end soon. Still with the yield flattening as a warning signal of it ending, perhaps the end of this bull run is near.
So what to do? Well, if you follow the general advice, nothing. The point is that if you have invested wisely then it doesn’t matter. That is what Buffet said in the article above, and it’s what I have heard repeated in many other places. Now we all have friends who have timed it well. I know a few folks who got the last one well, but I do not expect they will hit this one so well.
If anything, perhaps you can shift some more of your money to bond funds or blue chip stocks, but you risk earnings for the rest of this bull market, and of course what happens if you guess wrong on those blue chips. What happens if inflation spikes and those bond funds end up costing you money.
This is why I will not bother doing anything significant.